Same as it Evers Was

In an interview in Vox, Alan Abramowitz concludes that the three most likely to get the Republican presidential nomination are Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, a situation where, as Reginald Heber might have said, no prospect pleases, and every man is vile. Or as Franklin Pierce Adams, a man named after two presidents, might have written:

These are the saddest of possible words
Donald, or Marco, or Ted.
Trio of posers and all for the birds
Donald, or Marco, or Ted.
Spinning their lies without conscience or qualm,
Speaking of race as if they were named Strom,
Shunning diplomacy, favoring bombs,
Donald, or Marco, or Ted.

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56 thoughts on “Same as it Evers Was

  1. You’re not going to like Rubio if you don’t like Republicans, but he’s not even close to the other two clowns personally or politically.


  2. The funny tweet I saw yesterday is that the Republican Establishment is stuck choosing between whether they want to lose to Trump or whether they want to lose to Hillary.

    Trumwill had an awesome insight recently where he pointed out that Trump found a vulnerability in the Republican Primary code and is exploiting the heck out of it.

    From there, I’m guessing that the problem isn’t Trump as much as whomever the 2020/2024 nominee is going to be… if the establishment figures out how to exploit the same bug.


    • The Republican Establishment has already lost.
      That’s why the trolls stopped bothering with the race.
      Leave it to trolls to hack the system for fun and profit!

      Who else figures out how to make a profit off having a Democratic Congressional Candidate in Wyoming?


    • Exactly! The GOP has been dumbing down their internal politics/policy/assertion to make it more palatable to slip the internal contradictions through, and now lo and behold an apex predator from the entertainment industry has invaded the suddenly hospitable ecosystem and is flourishing.


  3. I am largely leaning towards Trump and Cruz. Rubio would be the establishment choice but he also seems to be everyone’s second choice. Though Rubio could pull a Kerry. I don’t like Rubio and he is probably the one most likely to give HRC a run for her money. Cruz is an unmitigated asshole and seems to alienate almost everyone including many GOP politicians.

    Trump worries me*. I don’t share North’s confidence that the Democratic Party would be really lucky if Trump wins the GOP nomination. In my mind if Trump wins, there is something in the air, a very reactionary populist blowback.

    *Unless he goes third party. That would be great!


    • I do not see how a Trump candidacy could beat Hillary short of some sort of melt down on her part. The Dems get the entire Latino vote, most of the Woman vote plus no reduction in their other constitutencies in a contest with Trump right out the gate. They have none (NONE) of the institutional or doctrinal hobbles that the GOP suffers so they could unleash hellfire on Trump in the ad war and the man is a geyser of soundbites to fuel said soundbites. Finally it’d be even odds if the GOP establishment would actually try to push Trump over the finish line or if they’d concentrate on salvaging downticket races and containing the contagion.

      And finally, let me state this baldly. In a scenario where a GOP candidate is guaranteed the win? I’d rather have Trump in the White House than Rubio or Cruz. No contest. Trump might not actually be a rubber stamp for a GOP Congress and Senate (Remember the Filibuster would be on the next boat to Guatanamo as soon as the GOP controlled the executive).


  4. 2016 – The Blowhard vs. the Haridan! Come see the Clowncar of Republican Davids take on the Democrat Kankles Sampson! See them stab at her, see her drop email bombs like your moms!

    Come one, come all!

    Step Right Up!


  5. My money his is still on Rubio, but I have seen enough pieces explaining the path Cruz is paving towards the nomination which makes me thinks the current situation is set in his favor.

    I still hope Trump gets the nomination. The head spinning within the Republican Party that will result will be epic.


        • It’s not remotely surprising if you look at the actual numbers. To be the front runner in the clown car you just have to bobble between 20-30% of polled people. Even screening for likely voters is a difficult art. We’re talking about a man who’s been the frontrunner during the time when only the political nerds and geeks are actually paying attention.

          Now sure the GOP doesn’t like what Trump is up to, he’s damaging their brand, damaging their candidates and he’s spooking the herd. But to get rid of him they’d need to get some of the other non-trump candidates to drop out so that opposition to him will coalesce. There’s no single favored candidate out there strong enough to get the establishment to start throwing their weight around this early.
          My personal expectation: Trump will not win a single one of the first four primaries. His candidacy will crater shortly after that, Cruz will kiss his ring (assuming Trump goes down gently) and inherit his supporters and the true contest will begin.


  6. As to this:

    “Speaking of race as if they were named Strom,”

    Trump seems a no-brainer to me, and I can kinda sort get that about Cruz (though it seems a reach). But why Rubio? As I recall, he’s the one GOP candidate who has spoken out in support of BLM.


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