It’s that time of year again! Oscar Season! The Academy Awards get handed out a week from today and that means that we have to fill out our best guesses for who wins what.
Please, no wagering unless it is legal in your jurisdiction to do so.
We’ll start with the most interesting ones: Best Supporting Role
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
For these, there are generally two ways that they pick to hand these out. The first is to look for which movies got the word “harrowing” to show up the most times in their reviews. The second is to look to see who has been nominated 2-3 times before but never won anything.
As such, I’m going with Michelle Williams for Best Supporting Actress. I was going to jump on Jeff Bridges for Best Supporting Actor but, ah-ha! He *WON* in 2010 for Crazy Heart! So he’s not going to win it this year. Since I think that Michelle Williams will win Best Supporting Actress, I’m stuck with guessing whether Manchester by the Sea will be one that sweeps at the Oscars or if we’re going to have another year with 4-5 different winners for the top 4-5 different categories. Let’s say it’s the latter. So Lucas Hedges is out, we’re stuck with Mahershala Ali, Dev Patel, or Michael Shannon. Checking out the Wikipedia entries for these films, which seems the most harrowing? Looks like Lion. Dev Patel it is.
Without getting into politics, I’ll just say that the next set, Best Actress/Best Actor, has all sorts of dynamics.
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
The main question is the extent to which the judges will be considering what will be said on the day after the awards are handed out as they are filling out their voting cards. This isn’t a “well, I have to vote for *THIS* person” dynamic, I think, as much as a “Well, I can’t vote for *THAT* person…” dynamic.
I’m going to guess that it’d be Natalie Portman for Best Actress and I’m torn between Denzel Washington and Andrew Garfield for Best Actor. Denzel has won for Glory and Training Day before, though… which might give Andrew Garfield a leg up.
(Of course, if the judges at home are assuming that everyone else will be voting their conscience and that gives them room to vote for their own guilty pleasures, it’ll be Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling.)
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
When it comes to “Best Picture”, the main rule of thumb I have is “which one celebrates an idea of Hollywood?” and that gets me to say “La La Land”.
So… what are your picks?