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is the iranian regime vulnerable?

by Erik Kain on June 18, 2009

Douglas Muir has a pretty good breakdown of exactly what makes a regime vulnerable to collapse – and more importantly, factors that make collapse unlikely.  His verdict regarding Iran?  The regime holds steady unless the guys with the guns change sides:

While there are some reports of unease among the security forces, it appears the police and the military are holding steady.

Until and unless this changes, Ahmadinejad looks quite secure — green paint and massive street protests notwithstanding.

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Tagged as: Iran

Erik Kain is a blogger and freelance writer. Currently he serves as Editor-in-Chief of The League of Ordinary Gentlemen and writes a tech blog at Forbes. Visit his politics blog here. He can be found occasionally composing 140 character cultural analysis on Twitter. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, The National Review, The Washington Examiner, and the now-defunct True/Slant. You can also contact him via email.

{ 1 comment }

1 mike farmer June 18, 2009 at 4:14 pm

I don’t know what will happen, of course, but, most likely, it won’t be pretty.

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