Jonathan Bernstein argues that, although it is bad in itself and should be deterred to the extent possible, increased presence of fraud in a government program is a good sign that the program is achieving its desired ends.
The lack of real evidence of actual voter fraud is probably a good sign that we’re not doing enough to promote voting. The big Obama-era example is the negative one from the stimulus. I don’t have the citation at hand — I seem to remember it was Matt Yglesias, but my apologies to whoever made the point — but the gist of it was that there hasn’t been nearly enough waste, fraud, and abuse in the execution of the recovery act. That’s exactly correct: the lack of waste, fraud, and abuse is a good sign that there hasn’t been enough focus on getting the economy back in gear and producing jobs. (Of course, in the case of economic stimulus, it’s also not always clear that “waste” is actually a bad thing, since the whole point is to get money out there). On the other hand, the myriad abuses and likely abundant fraud and waste in counterterrorism under George W. Bush was a good sign that the government really had made that a priority.
Since I thought this theory interesting, and haven’t seen it formulated before, and since it makes quite a bit of sense, I fully second the good professor’s request that the theory be called “Bernstein’s Law.”
UPDATE: In case it wasn’t clear from the post title, consider this an all too rare open thread.
Will Truman 
Kyle Cupp 
Burt Likko 
spivak 
Jaybird 
Pierre Corneille 
BlaiseP
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Well if this is an open thread then I’ll note that Bruce Bartlett has predictions up and they’re depressing but realistic sounding.
@North, Oh.. a link may help…
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Issues/The-Economy/2010/10/29/GOP-Insurgents-May-Disrupt-Leaders-Plans-and-Go-Rogue.aspx
@North, Why is that depressing?
The teapartiers are going to attack the Republicans and give them hell. That’s, like, awesome.
@Jaybird, I was musing more on the potential of course corrections being made impossible with the ship of state aimed right at an iceberg.
Up until Bartlette I’d happy assumed that in general gridlock is productive. But Bartlette makes a persuasive point that the “default direction” of the country’s finances are seriously dangerous.
Now from a partisan angle the idea of the GOP getting eaten alive by the tiger they ride into town on is a mightily amusing one…
@North, don’t give the government too much credit.
They won’t be preventing the Elder Statesmen from providing Good Government to The People.
They’ll be Keystone Cops, getting in the way of the other Keystone Cops, preventing yet more Keystone Cops from screwing over the public. (I hope!)
@Jaybird, If you say so Jay, here’s hoping you’re right. Though who are the elder statesmen in this scenario? In the early 90′s it was HW Bush, Clinton and the HW Bush era congressional Democrats.
@North, remember thinking, at the time, that those guys weren’t “real” Statesmen like the ones we had back in the 80′s? Reagan, O’Neill, Moynihan?
Those were the days.
I don’t even want to consider the folks who will make us nostalgic for Obama and Boner.
@Jaybird, I wasn’t politically conscious in the 80′s. I just vaguely remember Clinton getting elected. So for me thems were the elder statesmen.
Fallout: New Vegas is freakin’ awesome.
@Jaybird, I’m more a Civ 5 kindof player. Or Starcraft II.
@North, I’ve never played any of the Civ games, but running a culture sounds fun. And I have a decent excuse: I met one of the guys who worked on the soundtrack, so I can say I’m playing it “for the music.” But I barely have enough time to blog these days, so computer games are pretty much out.
@William Brafford, They’re engrossing and all consuming so if time is scarce for you don’t try playing em. Plus watch out for Ghandi, little bugger is a war mongering backstabber in glasses.
@North, give me an RPG any day… doubly so when it’s an RPG where there are multiple different ways to finish any given mission.
Can I do what I’m told? How about betray my benefactor? How about play both sides against each other?
That lets me play it a second time as a total bastard and a third time as a greedy one.
@Jaybird, Mmm I loved the older Fallouts Jay, but the newer ones have too much “shooter” aspect in it for my fancy. Fallout 1 was my fav. Unmatchable ambiance, turn based combat.
@Jaybird,
I find that I prefer RTS games like starcraft as the reward is feeling like I have gotten better. I also get the thrill of competition.
I keep trying RPGs but I can’t prevent feeling like I am a rat on a Skinnererian treadmill after a while.
With table-top rpgs it is different. but computerized ones make me want to read the story instead of play.
@North and ThatPirateGuy, North, Fallout 3, if you use the VATS system, feels like Fallout 1. (New Vegas, interestingly, feels like Fallout 2.)
TPG, I find that I hate people online. I may be just too old but I can’t stand it. Drives me nuts to be playing with/against 14-year olds. Diablo II ruined me forever.
@Jaybird,
Well the nice thing about starcraft is that there isn’t much typing and no voice chat!
@ThatPirateGuy, a zerg rush kekekekeke is a zerg rush kekekekeke is a zerg rush kekekekeke.
@Jaybird,
I have been known to 6 pool from time to time :)
Fraud? Every politician past, present and future is a fruad of some sort! It is the expanding degree of greed that finally gets them, and I guess according to “Bernstein’s Law” finally shows us our own failings.
When a baseball team forfeits, the game is recorded as a 9-0 victory for the other team. In other words, the Rangers might as well not have shown up last night.
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