David Brooks

On Reinhart and Rogoff

by Elias Isquith on April 16, 2013

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Big news on Tuesday as an influential 2010 study by professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was found, to put it lightly, to be deeply flawed. The paper’s conclusions were well received by the austerity camp — Paul Ryan, David Brooks, Joe Scarborough, Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson — for finding a high GDP-to-debt ratio was associated with (not the cause of, its authors inconsistently maintained) low growth rates. The magic number was 90 percent; pass that, the paper implied, and your economy was toast.

The Roosevelt Institute’s Mike Konczal has the definitive post on the issue, but this Jeff Spross roundup at ThinkProgress is great if you just want the 101:

First, Reinhart and Rogoff excluded the post-war years for certain countries that enjoyed robust economic growth despite debt levels well over 90 percent. They also chose a skewed method of weighting the data: for example, New Zealand’s single year of terrible growth while over the 90 percent threshold wound up counting just as much as Britain’s 19 years of healthy growth. And they even incorrectly input at least one Excel spreadsheet formula, wrongly excluding several countries form their calculations.

I couldn’t help but notice that all of these wrong signs were pointing in the same direction (to-the-right, to-the-right), so I asked Spross what he made of Reinhart and Rogoff and how conscious they might be of the way their paper’s been turned into a political shibboleth. But in way fewer words because, y’know, Twitter. His response:

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I guess I’m cynical because it’s hard for me to see the authors as such passive bystanders in this sudden farce. Again, if their mistakes were more varied, if some pointed toward Keynes while others toward Hayek, it’d be easier to imagine they were too intoxicated by the attention and praise to caution restraint.

As it looks to me now, the two of them made some very questionable decisions; and then they allowed themselves to be made the fig leaves for an austerity movement whose fundamental goals — cutting social services (and, in Europe, raising taxes) and breaking unions — were determined long, long before either professor made their first Excel fuck-up.

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David Brooks, running on E

by Elias Isquith on November 2, 2011

 

Bobo

DougJ is probably my favorite Professional Left David Brooks hater, although it is indeed a crowded field; but in response to Bobo’s most recent piece, I think he’s guilty of over-thinking things and giving the man more credit than he deserves:

Bobo—if I’m reading him right—says that the problem is that there’s too many non-college-educated fly-over country people and that they’re not eating right or raising their kids right. Isn’t this a natural place for government to expand access to education, health-care, and programs like Head Start? And isn’t it reasonable to ask that the wealthiest Americans, who surely make a lot of their money off these oh-so-tragically dumb, fat, poorly raised fucks, help foot the bill for it?

Also too, I can no longer understand who the real heroes and villains are for conservatives anymore. I gave up long ago with foreign policy, I can’t tell who’s Hitler and who’s a brave Churchillian protector of freedom, but I thought I knew a hawk from a handsaw within the confines of Our Republic. I can’t tell anymore. I know that college graduates from “blue states” are lazy, trustafarian slime, but now I know that non-college graduates from “red states” are fat, lazy, chain-smoking slime.

These would all be good points if the Brooks piece actually had a coherent argument at its center. But it doesn’t.

What I’ve noticed in Brooks’s work as of late — especially since Occupy got going — is that his usually unconvincing attempts to portray himself as anything other than a Republican propagandist have become even more meager and half-hearted. His first column in response to Occupy was the most obvious example of slippage, a piece of such thoroughly sniveling disinformation that even my not-especially-political father was compelled to email and ask if I’d read it before subsequently calling Brooks an [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted].

In all seriousness, how could anyone read the following, from that piece, and doubt that Brooks was trying his damnedest to give us a high-brow, Upper East Side-ready version of the Turd Blossom treatment:

Take the Occupy Wall Street movement. This uprising was sparked by the magazine Adbusters, previously best known for the 2004 essay, “Why Won’t Anyone Say They Are Jewish?” — an investigative report that identified some of the most influential Jews in America and their nefarious grip on policy.

If there is a core theme to the Occupy Wall Street movement, it is that the virtuous 99 percent of society is being cheated by the richest and greediest 1 percent.

This is a theme that allows the people in the 99 percent to think very highly of themselves. All their problems are caused by the nefarious elite.

Unfortunately, almost no problem can be productively conceived in this way. A group that divides the world between the pure 99 percent and the evil 1 percent will have nothing to say about education reform, Medicare reform, tax reform, wage stagnation or polarization. They will have nothing to say about the way Americans have overconsumed and overborrowed. These are problems that implicate a much broader swath of society than the top 1 percent.

They will have no realistic proposal to reduce the debt or sustain the welfare state. Even if you tax away 50 percent of the income of those making between $1 million and $10 million, you only reduce the national debt by 1 percent, according to the Tax Foundation. If you confiscate all the income of those making more than $10 million, you reduce the debt by 2 percent. You would still be nibbling only meekly around the edges.

If the above got your spider-sense tingling, but you’re not sure exactly why, try this and this. Or you could save yourself the trouble and remember this is David Brooks we’re talking about here — it’s bull one way or the other, the details are nothing but.

Turning back to the piece DougJ’s referencing, though, we see Brooks, in his attempts to smear the Occupiers, has already stuck his hand through the bottom of his rather thin grab-bag of parlor tricks. He’s thus forced to reach back into his repertoire and unearth a riff of his that was grubby and stale — if now perhaps almost nostalgia-producingly well-executed — from the start: the division of America into two color-coded camps, the Real and the Not So:

If you live in [America's] big cities, you see people similar to yourself, who may have gone to the same college, who are earning much more while benefiting from low tax rates, wielding disproportionate political power, gaining in prestige and contributing seemingly little to the social good. That is the experience of Blue Inequality

Then there is what you might call Red Inequality. This is the kind experienced in Scranton, Des Moines, Naperville, Macon, Fresno, and almost everywhere else. In these places, the crucial inequality is not between the top 1 percent and the bottom 99 percent. It’s between those with a college degree and those without…

These two forms of inequality exist in modern America. They are related but different. Over the past few months, attention has shifted almost exclusively to Blue Inequality.

That’s because the protesters and media people who cover them tend to live in or near the big cities, where the top 1 percent is so evident. That’s because the liberal arts majors like to express their disdain for the shallow business and finance majors who make all the money. That’s because it is easier to talk about the inequality of stock options than it is to talk about inequalities of family structure, child rearing patterns and educational attainment…

But the fact is that Red Inequality is much more important. The zooming wealth of the top 1 percent is a problem, but it’s not nearly as big a problem as the tens of millions of Americans who have dropped out of high school or college…If your ultimate goal is to reduce inequality, then you should be furious at the doctors, bankers and C.E.O.’s. If your goal is to expand opportunity, then you have a much bigger and different agenda.

Contra DougJ’s guess, I don’t think Brooks is trying to take a swing at slothful or stupid Real Americans. He’s just desperate — as it was always evident the GOP would be — to turn Occupy into humdrum representatives of the liberal elite, alighting the fireworks of culture war in a ham-fisted attempt to distract the nation from its ongoing class-based strife. The representatives of “Red Inequality,” then, are merely collateral damage, their struggles are cited by Brooks in a cynical attempt to claim the moral high ground and implicitly damn Occupiers and the like as petty, envious, and above all narcissistic.

It’s the same damn song Brooks has been singing ever since his days at the Weekly Standard whenever it looked like the masses were on the verge of disobeying their betters. The neoconservative Brooks used the threat of global terrorism then; he’ll have to settle for a menacing academic achievement gap now. But here’s the thing about propaganda — it doesn’t work if you can see its gears turning. And Brooks’s are spinning faster than The Tramp’s.

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The Romney Rule

by Elias Isquith on October 21, 2011

As soon as I saw this new third-party ad against Mitt Romney—an ad that it’s quite unlikely at least someone at the White House didn’t see before it got the go-ahead—I thought to myself, “Wow; the Village is just going to go absolutely nuts on Obama in 2012.”

I meant, of course, that if the President and his partisans do indeed run an ad against the presumptive nominee, Mitt Romney, that is this populist, this rabble-rousing, and this bare-knuckled; well, I’m not sure David Brooks et al will ever summon the wherewithal to remove themselves from their fainting couches and carry on.

This is simply the kind of an ad that the Democratic Party is, unofficially, not allowed to run anymore. It’s class warfare! It’s divisive! It’s downright mean! Or, to put it another way…

I’m a little taken aback by the personal brazenness of this. It’s far more populist than Obama’s previous campaign. In fact, it reminds me of the kind of brutal ads Republicans tend to deploy.

Hope everyone’s got their pearl-clutchin’ gloves at the ready. It’s going to be a long campaign.

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I don’t write much about David Brooks because there are already a lot of people in the blogosphere who do so admirably, have been at it quite some time, and deserve to have this bountiful territory for themselves since they were the ones willing to spend so many years uprooting its myriad and multiplying weeds. So rather than focus on his latest column—very bad, even by his lowly standards—I’d like to focus on his colleague Paul Krugman’s response, which tip-toes along the boundary the Times likes to maintain between its various “brands,” to keep them from sniping at one another and thus reducing the (absurd) sense of unified comity amongst its personalities that it so cultivates.

Brooks’s column is a rather snide and huffy broadside against the Occupy Wall Street protestors, in which, in his characteristic manner of having no self-awareness whatsoever, every liberal’s favorite conservative essentially argues that Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson are the real radicals—because, after all, what’s more radical than asking the poor to sacrifice?—and that the OWS folks are just a bunch of mean dummies. The whole thing is a rather transparently defensive and insecure wagging of the finger at a movement that is in many ways the antithesis of Brooks’s profoundly elitist and anti-democratic worldview; by its end you almost expect Brooks to go into full-on Thoughtful Burkean Conservative mode and write of the Wall Street bankers with the same kind of purple, mawkish language that the father of conservatism used to sing Marie Antoinette’s praises. Ho-hum stuff from Bobo, really.

What did catch my eye, however, was the section where Brooks attempts to martial numbers to his cause—an always perilous endeavor—and cites the right-wing Tax Foundation:

If there is a core theme to the Occupy Wall Street movement, it is that the virtuous 99 percent of society is being cheated by the richest and greediest 1 percent.

This is a theme that allows the people in the 99 percent to think very highly of themselves. All their problems are caused by the nefarious elite.

Unfortunately, almost no problem can be productively conceived in this way. A group that divides the world between the pure 99 percent and the evil 1 percent will have nothing to say about education reform, Medicare reform, tax reform, wage stagnation or polarization. They will have nothing to say about the way Americans have overconsumed and overborrowed. These are problems that implicate a much broader swath of society than the top 1 percent.

They will have no realistic proposal to reduce the debt or sustain the welfare state. Even if you tax away 50 percent of the income of those making between $1 million and $10 million, you only reduce the national debt by 1 percent, according to the Tax Foundation. If you confiscate all the income of those making more than $10 million, you reduce the debt by 2 percent. You would still be nibbling only meekly around the edges.

I wasn’t shocked to see this talking point because it’s one I’ve seen more than a few right-wingers martial to their defense online. It’s not quite as ubiquitous as the 53%-47% red herring, but it’s close. My internal response was to note how silly it is to gauge the effectiveness of raising taxes on the ultra-wealthy against the size of the debt not the deficit—and to discount entirely the other reasons one would propose this measure, like the reduction of inequality—and leave it at that. But an hour or so later I came across Paul Krugman’s response on the blog and found out that the silliness goes far, far deeper:

I read David Brooks citing the Tax Foundation this morning, and I thought he must have misread them. They couldn’t possibly have compared one year’s take from higher taxes on the rich with the total stock of debt, could they? They can’t possibly be that stupid, or think that their readers are that stupid, can they?

Yes they did. They actually find that their version of the “Buffett rule” would collect $120 billion a year, which is a seriously significant sum. But they try to make it look small by comparing one year’s revenue with the total debt outstanding.

I mean, the standard scoring method in Washington involves using 10-year projections — and even that is flawed, because the real budget issues are much longer-term than that. But nobody, nobody thinks it makes sense to estimate the effect of a revenue proposal on future debt by looking only at the first year’s receipts.

This deliberate fraud — because that’s what it has to be — is an example of the reasons knowledgeable people don’t trust the Tax Foundation.

You don’t really have to read between the lines on this one to see that Krugman is calling Brooks, through the Tax Foundation proxy, one or all of the following: stupid, dishonest, and unknowledgeable. Although these two have a history of obliquely going after one another in the Grey Lady’s pages, it’s been a while since one took such an obvious shot at the other. Maybe if Occupy Wall Street does nothing else, it’ll lead to the Times allowing them to hurl invective at each other—misdirection free—just once.

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