Ron Brownstein combs through the first batch of real-deal 2012 polls and finds that the demographic make-up of those polled is almost entirely determinative of the winner. Obama’s more or less got the same coalition in place that won him 2008, but his margin of error is considerably smaller than it was 4 years ago:
Even with their modest variations, these four surveys paint a similar picture. Obama is largely holding the minority and college-educated white womenwho comprise two pillars of the modern Democratic base (along with young people.) But he is facing erosion among blue-collar white men and struggling to maintain even his modest 2008 support among the two swing quadrants in the white electorate: the college-plus white men and non-college white women.
For the moment, that division of allegiances is enough to provide Obama an overall advantage (he would lead slightly even in the Gallup track if the minority share of the vote was adjusted to its level in 2008). But it’s not enough of an edge for him to breathe easy-and the fact that most of the white electorate is resisting him at least as much as it did in 2008 suggests he may never entirely get to such a comfortable place before November, even if he remains ahead overall.
Data like this leads me to find the ongoing referendum-or-choice argument happening in the blogosphere — primarily between Ed Kilgore, William Galston, and Sean Trende — to be even sillier than one might think on first blush. (The whole referendum/choice thing is obviously a proxy argument over whether or not Obama will win reelection; and it’s one of those especially silly proxy arguments that political junkies engage in from time to time, usually when there’s nothing better to yap about.) Because, for all of our talk about independents and our built-in assumption that there’s some large bloc of voters who haven’t decided yet, the election will pretty much be decided by which side’s loyal voters actually turn out.
That’s one of the reasons why Republicans nationally have put so much effort into combatting the phantom menace of voter fraud; and it’s one of the reasons why the Obama campaign has adopted a more partisan and combative posture. The President and company understand that they need to get people who are choosing between voting Obama or not voting at all to come out and vote — that’s how they win. Full stop and end of story.
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