Paul Ryan

On Reinhart and Rogoff

by Elias Isquith on April 16, 2013

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Big news on Tuesday as an influential 2010 study by professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was found, to put it lightly, to be deeply flawed. The paper’s conclusions were well received by the austerity camp — Paul Ryan, David Brooks, Joe Scarborough, Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson — for finding a high GDP-to-debt ratio was associated with (not the cause of, its authors inconsistently maintained) low growth rates. The magic number was 90 percent; pass that, the paper implied, and your economy was toast.

The Roosevelt Institute’s Mike Konczal has the definitive post on the issue, but this Jeff Spross roundup at ThinkProgress is great if you just want the 101:

First, Reinhart and Rogoff excluded the post-war years for certain countries that enjoyed robust economic growth despite debt levels well over 90 percent. They also chose a skewed method of weighting the data: for example, New Zealand’s single year of terrible growth while over the 90 percent threshold wound up counting just as much as Britain’s 19 years of healthy growth. And they even incorrectly input at least one Excel spreadsheet formula, wrongly excluding several countries form their calculations.

I couldn’t help but notice that all of these wrong signs were pointing in the same direction (to-the-right, to-the-right), so I asked Spross what he made of Reinhart and Rogoff and how conscious they might be of the way their paper’s been turned into a political shibboleth. But in way fewer words because, y’know, Twitter. His response:

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I guess I’m cynical because it’s hard for me to see the authors as such passive bystanders in this sudden farce. Again, if their mistakes were more varied, if some pointed toward Keynes while others toward Hayek, it’d be easier to imagine they were too intoxicated by the attention and praise to caution restraint.

As it looks to me now, the two of them made some very questionable decisions; and then they allowed themselves to be made the fig leaves for an austerity movement whose fundamental goals — cutting social services (and, in Europe, raising taxes) and breaking unions — were determined long, long before either professor made their first Excel fuck-up.

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The GOP’s Self-Inflicted Wound

by Elias Isquith on April 13, 2013

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Ezra Klein flagsan interesting Gallup result showing rare uniformity in American public opinion. Turns out near everyone, Republicans included, thinks the GOP is intransigent. And they don’t like it:

[Twenty-two] percent of Democrats, 17 percent of independents, and fully 26 percent of Republicans complained that the GOP refuses to compromise. That’s rather remarkable: It turns out that the GOP’s rigidity is the top complaint of both Democrats and Republicans. It easily beats “nothing,” even among Republicans!

This reminds me of a Twitter back-n-forth I had last week with frequent commenter and blogger in his own right, CK Macleod. Specifically, we were talking about Ben Carson; but the general topic was same-sex marriage (SSM) and the odd spectacle of seeing the conventional wisdom shift right in front of our eyes. Not even 10 years ago, campaigning for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage was a clear winner for an embattled incumbent Bush.

And now? Now most Republicans — excluding the Bachmanns, the Kings, the Brouns and basically all the Congresspeople ThinkProgress makes bank shaming every single day— greet expressions of homophobia with silence or vague distaste. Cool. But their fundamental opposition to SSM is unchanged. Their silence is not their assent to changing social norms over sexuality and marriage. It’s much more like closing one’s eyes and hoping the world outside can’t see, either.

Anyway, as CK and I note, Republicans made a strategic error in regards to gay marriage when they settled on total opposition. Rather than get pro-family policy concessions along the lines of those advocated by Rick Santorum — things like tax credits for children — Republicans have simply stood athwart history, yelling no, and losing ground bit by bit. The same can be said of the GOP’s response to Obamacare, financial reform, Lilly Ledbetter and dozens of other Obama initiatives.

Republican obstinance hit its tragicomic peak-nadir, of course, during the summer of 2011, when the GOP said no to a Grand Bargain well to the right of anything remotely acceptable to any Democrat not experiencing abject terror over the prospect of losing reelection. I shudder to think of the consequences if that “deal” had been struck. But thankfully Republican intransigence has been liberals’ best friend as much as conservatives’ worst enemy. And if these Gallup results are to be believed, none have internalized that fact more than Republicans themselves:

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On Politifact

by Elias Isquith on December 24, 2011

Politifact

To my mind, the ongoing Politifact brouhaha is a sterling example of the cloistered frivolity that can define the blogosphere at its worst. When so many intelligent people and talented writers are devoting their efforts to articulating their (exaggerated) derision for Politifact, the pile-on reveals that, for all its benefits, the digital revitalization of the public space the blogosphere’s most romantic proponents imagine it to be brings reanimates not only the virtues of a collective consciousness, but the vices, too.

I don’t have a problem in and of itself with the online Left’s lambasting and deriding the fact-checking website. I agree with many that to label Democratic criticism of Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform as ending the program “as we know it” the Biggest Lie of the Year is a transparent and cowardly gambit by the St. Petersburg Times outfit to preempt any potential accusations of Liberal Bias. And though I wish it weren’t so, I don’t deny that imagined arbiters of Truth like Politifact do indeed possess a disproportionate influence among partisans and low-information voters, both, and that their judgments are often potent ammo for warring campaigns during the dog days of an election year.

But I think Jim Newell was right when he insisted that attacking Politifact implicitly gives the group more credibility and power than it deserves; and I believe that, even if we agree for the sake of argument that Politifact’s influence requires a concerted push-back campaign, the typhoon-like nature of the Left’s outrage has clearly done little more than emboldened its leaders and encouraged their petty self-perception of being iconoclastic truth sayers, willing to suffer the opprobrium of partisans on either side.

In short: there are bigger fish to fry.

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The Romney-Ryan Plan

by Elias Isquith on December 8, 2011

Romney

It looks like the Romney campaign has decided that alongside its personal critique of Gingrich (thrice married), they’re going to try to pop the former Speaker of the House’s bubble with a policy-based assault as well. It’s an interesting choice, however; and it’s yet another reminder, not that we needed one, of how intensely Romney wants to win. From ThinkProgress’s Igor Volsky:

Mitt Romney’s campaign is stepping up their attacks against current GOP presidential frontrunner Newt Gingrich today over his criticism of Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) Medicare privatization plan. In a press release to reporters, Gail Gitcho, Romney’s communications director, charged, “Speaker Gingrich’s attack on Paul Ryan’s plan as ‘right-wing social engineering’ – and then denying his own attack before doubling down on it – is the kind of Washington politics that Americans are tired of.”

Slamming Gingrich for his short-lived bucking of a Republican consensus — which was almost rhapsodic in its praise for Ryan’s plan — makes short-term sense. But what’s smart in the short-term could turn out to be an enormous mistake in the long. Because, more than any of the far-right positions Romney’s adopted as of late, supporting the voucherization of Medicare could render him unelectable in the general. At least that’s what Democrats seem to think. Greg Sargent reports:

The reason this matters: It will give Dems a weapon in the general election against Romney. “In order to make this attack, Mitt Romney has now given himself ownership of the Ryan plan,” Jed Lewison writes. “Let me say that again: Mitt Romney is now one hundred percent committed to Paul Ryan’s proposal to end Medicare and replace it with vouchers.”

Steve Benen added: “This is the line Democrats have waited eight months for Romney to take.”

Paul Begala summed up the thinking among Dems today. “The fact that Mitt Romney would call for essentially ending Medicare should disqualify him from the presidency in the eyes of millions of middle-class voters,” Begala said, adding that the Ryan plan is “the most toxic, anti-senior, anti-middle-class proposal I have seen from a major political party in years.”

A Dem operative emailed a one word response: “Rejoicing.”

If the story of Romney 2012 ends the same as did Romney 2008, there’s going to be something so pathetic as to approach tragedy about the myopic cravenness of George’s son. Of course, if he wins, this’ll all be declared to have been the height “savviness.”

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Newty

Reading Andrew Sullivan’s blog can be a bit of a schizophrenic experience, especially if you’re one of the roughly 6 billion people on Earth who don’t happen to find yourself occupying his idiosyncratic political niche. One month he’s waxing rhapsodic about Paul Ryan’s “brave” and “principled” stance in favor of Randian economics, the next he’s on a rampage against Howard Kurtz and Village conventional wisdom (well, at least before he joined Kurtz at the Daily Beast).

In that vein, I think he’s really had his head in the sand for much of the year as to how much trouble the President is really in; but his commentary on the latest GOP debate—which, if his Twitter feed is to be believed, was supplemented by a healthy dose of Vicodin—was a lot of fun. I especially enjoyed this post, in which Sully valiantly attempts to stand athwart the conventional wisdom of Newt Gingrich being intelligent, yelling “Stop!”:

[Newt] came off [in the debate] as a petulent, pompous, pseudo-intellectual prick. He is simply not that bright, and as out of his depth as his insecure pronouncements of self-described world-historical profundity suggest. He belongs on Dancing With The Stars, not a Republican debate, even of this poor caliber.

Or maybe it’s best put another way: having constant stupid and half-baked ideas that you believe are world-altering is not a sign of intelligence. It’s a sign of narcissism, wrapped in a constant, angry snarl.

The way so much of the political-media class has bought Gingrich’s BS when it comes to his intellect has always reminded me of something a Professor of mine told me when I was working on my undergraduate thesis. In so many words, he recommended that I state in my introduction everything I would do and intended to do, even if I didn’t really succeed in doing it. The reason, he said, was because people had an amazing tendency to believe you’ve done something you haven’t, provided you insist from the start that you have.

Newt basically starts off every debate or public performance with a version of “I am so smart, I am so smart; s-m-r-t”; and, with exceptions here and there, it seems to be working.

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Ryan

Your liberal media at work:

Say what you will about Ryan’s willingness to take on sacrificial lambs, he is not shy about pushing controversial proposals — and that’s a rarity in Washington.

“He is a guy without guile, without pretense. He likes to hang out with actuaries for relaxation,” conservative commentator and CNN analyst Bill Bennett said in an interview. Ryan worked for Bennett at Empower America.

And there’s more to Ryan than the D.C. wonk. He’s also a hunter who can target elk with a bow and arrow. And he’s an exercise buff — when in Washington, he works out each morning with some of his congressional colleagues using a grueling fitness routine called P90X. One favorite pastime: trekking the Colorado Rockies.

His devotion to fitness was spurred by the early death of his father at age 55 when Ryan was 16.

“I basically had to learn to sink and swim,” he recalled. “I did a lot of growing up very fast. And it made me take stock of who I am, what kind of person I want to be. It made me, I would say, very initiative-prone — live life to its fullest because you never know how long it is going to last.”

Not mentioned once in this piece about Paul Ryan being so popular is his favorable/unfavorable poll numbers, the most recent of which (that I could find, at least) indicate Ryan is in fact not especially popular. Puncturing another hole into CNN’s story is the fact that Ryan’s recent dip in unpopularity is quite clearly a consequence of his “Path to Prosperity.”

To be fair, it’s in the aggregate that Ryan loses his shine; as far as Republicans are concerned, he’s the bees knees.

Whether or not CNN is right in depicting Ryan as Washington’s prom king, I wonder if there really is anyone in the world who actually wants to read these kinds of piece. Besides the politician in question’s press agent, I mean.

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Jacob Weisberg, keeper of the order

by Elias Isquith on September 23, 2011

Something about Jacob Weisberg really rubs me the wrong way. Because of this, and due to having matured slightly—at least to the point where I don’t look for things to get self-righteously angry about—I’ve tried my best to avoid his work. His biography of George W. Bush’s Presidency, The Bush Tragedy, was nice enough, I suppose; it didn’t reveal anything we didn’t already know, nor did it make an argument we hadn’t already heard before (that Bush was a disaster in large part due to his insecurities and daddy issues). But it was competently written and it didn’t read like something Matt Bai would endorse.

And that’s saying something for Weisberg, because the majority of his contributions to the national discourse have erred on the side of pompous conventional wisdom and unsubtle signals of membership in the church of the savvy. Perhaps his greatest “masterpiece” in this, his chosen genre, was the piece he wrote in which he rapturously praised Paul Ryan for his “Path to Prosperity” (in which, recall, Medicare and Medicaid were gutted so as to lower taxes on the wealthy). The plan was “smart” and “brave” and “bold” and oh so very, very “serious.”

Unsurprisingly, the love note to Ryan received more than a little criticism from other liberal writers; but the thing you need to understand about Weisberg is, well, he’s the type of guy who doesn’t need a petty thing like facticity. Paul Ryan’s plan was “bold” because it told poor and middle class people to buzz off—more importantly, it offered Weisberg the opportunity grab himself some attention with his “contrarian” trumpeting of its brilliance.

And that dynamic is probably the best way to explain this, his recent broadside against Ron Suskind’s Confidence Men. But, actually, it’s not really an attack on Confidence Men; rather, it’s simply an attack on Suskind himself:

There’s no journalist who sets off my bullshit alarm like Ron Suskind. Issues of accuracy, fairness, and integrity come up nearly every time Suskind publishes something. Key sources claim they’ve been misrepresented and misquoted, that basic facts are wrong, and that the Pulitzer-winning reporter has misconstrued the larger story as well. […] Like all of Suskind’s work, the story is told in purple prose littered with passages of such blurriness that it’s hard to imagine a professional editor letting them past. […] Suskind has now turned his egregious writing and dubious technique on the Obama administration […] Suskind should no longer be treated as a “controversial” journalist as much as a disreputable one. His fellow journalists no longer trust him. Readers shouldn’t either.

There’s a lot of good stuff in there. My favorite bit might be the end, where Weisberg implicitly claims to speak for the Order of Journalists—to whom, of course, the rest of us are obligated to defer—who have deemed Suskind to be unworthy. It’s especially amusing to see Weisberg claim that Suskind is an untouchable when one considers that he quoted the man in his book about Bush. I suppose Suskind’s dirt becomes gold as long as it’s in Weisberg’s hands.

In any event, there are only really two small portions of this two-page article in which Weisberg actually criticizes the text itself of Confidence Men rather than the man who wrote it. One is a masterful display of nit-pickery—bludgeoning Suskind for the fact that the publishing industry, having long been in its death throes, no longer fact-checks an author’s work—while the other is either shamelessly or incompetently misleading.

Here’s the nits Weisberg so zealously picks:

Suskind has now turned his egregious writing and dubious technique on the Obama administration in his new book, Confidence Men. Once again, his work is strewn with small but telling errors. Here are a few: The Federal Reserve is a board, not a bureau (Page 7); Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was previously president, not “chairman,” of the New York Fed (Page 56); he was, however, an undersecretary of the treasury, which Suskind makes a point out of saying he wasn’t (Page 172); Horatio Alger was an author, not a character (Page 54); Gene Sperling didn’t play tennis for the University of Michigan, because he went to the University of Minnesota (Page 215); the gothic spires of Yale Law School, built in 1931, are not “centuries old” (Page 250); Franklin D. Roosevelt did not say of his opponents, “I welcome their hate” (Page 235). What FDR said at Madison Square Garden in 1936, was “I welcome their hatred.” That nuance wouldn’t matter if it weren’t such a famous line, but getting it wrong is the political equivalent of an English professor misquoting Hamlet’s soliloquy.

Two things: 1. I’m glad to see that Weisberg is paying attention to the White House’s press releases and 2. it’s somewhat comforting to see that Weisberg is at least self-aware enough to know that he needed to write that last sentence about Hamlet, lest someone respond to everything above it with a “Seriously?” Personally, it doesn’t matter much to me whether or not Suskind knows it’s president instead of chairman. It’s regrettable, sure—but Confidence Men isn’t a textbook or an authoritative piece of history. It’s a work of narrative non-fiction—the first pressing at that. Your mileage may vary, but if someone told me that The Best and the Brightest got various officials’ titles wrong, it wouldn’t cause me to toss the book into the fireplace.

The second piece of Weisberg’s take-down concerns the broader narrative of the work. Judging by how he describes it, he either didn’t read it, or is lying:

When challenged on his conclusions, Suskind points to his meticulous reporting; when challenged on the facts, he pleads the larger picture. But his bigger points are equally inaccurate. The larger thesis of his book, to the extent it has one, is that the Obama White House is rife with sexism and that its economic policymaking has been misguided and chaotic. To support these claims, Suskind stretches the thinnest of material well beyond the breaking point.

Let me tell ya, although the sexism stuff has gotten the most press—because it requires the least of the journalists writing about it (they don’t even have to read the book!)—it is not one of the two larger-picture arguments of the book. Further, neither is that “economic policymaking has been misguided and chaotic.” And this really isn’t hard to figure out; it’s in the subtitle. Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington, and the Education of a President. The number 1, primary, main argument of the book is that Barack Obama was woefully underprepared for the task at hand, and allowed himself to be manipulated and overruled by his economic advisors, most of whom had longstanding and multifarious links with Wall Street. It’s a story about naïvety and corruption—not sexism and chaos.

It’s not hard to figure out, however, why Weisberg obfuscates and misdirects like he does. He’d rather talk about the salacious and the petty because the more damning and forceful accusation hits too close to home, makes him uncomfortable. How else is a man so willing and able to unquestioningly believe the denials of the powerful supposed to react:

The most interesting claim in Suskind’s book is that Geithner blocked the breakup of Citigroup against the wishes of President Obama, exemplifying the supposed problem that “the young president’s authority was being systematically undermined or hedged by his seasoned advisers.” The problem with this tale is that it, too, is plainly wrong. In early 2009, there was a disagreement inside the administration about whether breaking up Citigroup made sense, with Summers among others in favor, and Geithner opposed. But Suskind’s claim that “Treasury never moved forward to carry out the President’s wishes about Citigroup,” that Geithner killed the breakup plan by “slow-walking” it, has been strongly denied by Geithner and not supported by anyone else.

According to Austan Goolsbee, the recently departed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, a plan to break up or nationalize banks before the results of the stress tests were known could easily have caused runs on all banks perceived as weak and that the fear of contagion was well known by the president. “The charge that the President decided to break up Citi and Treasury refused to do it is absurd,” Goolsbee told me. “The fundamental issue at hand was what to do once we had the data from the stress test results to show what the weaknesses were and how big.”

In the book, Suskind claims that the president confirmed his version of the Citi episode in an interview. He has been repeating this claim on his publicity tour. But a transcript[*] of that part of their conversation that the White House Press Office released to me shows nothing of the kind. Obama doesn’t seem to grasp Suskind’s rambling and convoluted question, but his response doesn’t indicate that he was frustrated with Geithner—as opposed to the quandary his team faced—or that he felt undermined by his treasury secretary in any way.

In sum, Suskind writes that various people said things that either made them or their superiors look bad. Said people respond “nu-uh.” Jacob Weisberg then considers the matter at rest, and Suskind to be a liar. QED. What else could a real journalist—like Weisberg or his fellow Obama defender/Suskind attacker Jonathan “torture works” Alter—ever need?

 

*Do be sure to read the transcript, btw—it’s not rambling and the President’s answer is a patent dodge, not a case of him misunderstanding.

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Goldman Sachs on the Paul Ryan recovery

by Elias Isquith on September 20, 2011

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Jon Chait (at his new New York magazine digs) explains a new chart from Goldman Sachs on what one might call the Paul Ryan economy:

Okay, here is what this chart is telling us. The federal government has been pumping economic stimulus, in the form of higher spending and lower taxes, into the economy since 2009. But state and local governments have been pumping stimulus back out of the economy.

Why? Because state and local governments can’t run deficits. They have to balance their budgets. When the economy slows down, those governments collect less taxes, and often they have to spend more (on, say, programs for the poor, because more people qualify in a terrible economy.) So states that had balanced budgets at a given level of taxes and spending before the crisis suddenly have to raise taxes and/or cut spending in order to balance their budget during the crisis. The private sector is throwing people out of work, and the public sector is throwing even more people — cops, teachers, and so on — out of work.

The Goldman Sachs chart here measures the effect of the federal government’s stimulus against state and local governments’ anti-stimulus. Guess what? Anti-stimulus has been winning since the middle of 2010. That is, the federal government has been pulling in the direction urged by Krugman, the Obama administration, and the entire macroeconomic forecasting field. State and local governments have been pulling in the direction urged by Paul Ryan, the rest of the Republican Party, and a handful of right-wing economists. And for the last year, the right-wingers have been prevailing.

My question: was this federal-local dissonance on spending the case during the New Deal, too? If so, how did the Roosevelt Administration handle it? If not, what’s changed?

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